Projected Sales of US Eagle Gold Bullion Coins in 2009

While the US Mint saw an sharp rise in the demand for their standard gold bullion Eagles in 2008 – almost tripling sales from the previous year, sales of the gold Eagle had been rather low as compared with their historic highs in the late 1990s. In fact, sales in 2007 were quite low, with fewer than 200,000 ounces sold.

Of course, what makes this interesting is the move of the US Mint to suspend sales and ration supplies of gold Eagle coins in 2008. Indeed, that is the only thing unprecedented about the events of late 2008. This, of course, begs the question: why did the mint choose to horde gold in late 2008? Was it a ploy to increase demand for US-mined gold in 2009?

And perhaps more importantly, will it work? Unlike those who claim there is an actual shortage of the commodity in US government coffers, it seems most likely that the move is speculative on the part of the US Mint. Could this speculation actually be intended to move the price of gold on the markets? Anyone who knows isn’t talking, since neither people or governments are supposed to do that since the anti-trust laws of the 1980s were passed.

It is worth noting that since the introduction of the .9999 pure American Buffalo coin in 2006, many serious gold buyers have abandoned the 91.7% gold American Eagle coins. Though their sales have continued to remain strong, the introduction of the gold American Buffalo coin have certainly impacted their sales. The number of gold Buffaloes the Mint is able to strike before running out may determine the sales for Double Eagles again in 2009.

The also .9999 pure gold First Spouse coins were also introduced by the US Mint in 2006, drawing another portion of the serious gold investor away from gold bullion Eagles. When released, they were sold at a price surprisingly close to the spot price of gold (though it has increased tremendously since), with each spouse limited to a minting of 40,000.

However, due to a change in the policy of the US Mint to more closely track the price of gold in its sales of both platinum and gold bullion coins such as the Double Eagle. While some believe that this move to change the price of their coins weekly based upon the average London price will discourage buying directly from the mint when other types of gold bullion have a set price.

With all these forces at work, it is likely that the sales of the US Mint’s gold Double Eagle bullion coins will top half a million in sales in 2009, though how much of that will be at the end of the year due to selling out of the other coins. The mint itself has not raised any figures on what sort of numbers they are expecting to sell.

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Arthur McGuire

February 9, 2009